2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

✨ Despite an upheld conviction and ankle monitor, Marine Le Pen's path to the 2027 ballot remains wide open because the ruling did not impose a candidacy ban and her poll lead has actually grown, making legal disqualification as a key risk appear low.

Yes ≈ 89% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

✨ Despite a lack of recent headlines specifically tied to Éric Zemmour's 2027 candidacy, his stable 79% odds reflect his existing political infrastructure and hard-right base, tempered by uncertainty over his ability to secure the 500 elected sponsors required under French electoral law, a hurdle that has tripped up past outsider candidates.

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Yes ≈ 84% chance

✨ Lisnard's independent bid leverages his Cannes mayoral platform and a break from The Republicans, but the 59% No odds reflect the steep challenge of gathering 500 sponsorships without a major party machine.

Yes ≈ 62% chance

✨ Xavier Bertrand's bid is a long shot not because of his regional profile but because he lacks a national party machine and the conservative primary is crowded; the 8% Yes price reflects a narrow path that requires him to win a party nomination that currently looks unlikely.

Yes ≈ 6% chance

✨ The market heavily favors a 'No' outcome, reflecting that Laurent Wauquiez has lost the conservative party's backing to Interior Minister Retailleau for the 2027 presidential bid, making his ballot access extremely unlikely.

Yes ≈ 3% chance

✨ François Ruffin's path to the 2027 ballot is highly uncertain: he lacks major-party backing and faces a crowded left field, with the odds reflecting skepticism that he can secure the necessary 500 endorsements or unify support around his candidacy.

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Yes ≈ 33% chance

✨ Retailleau is a viable candidate but faces a crowded conservative field; his hard-right pivot may secure a base but risks alienating the mainstream party establishment needed for ballot access.

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Yes ≈ 96% chance

Yes ≈ 27% chance

✨ Roussel's 76% odds reflect his status as the incumbent PCF candidate and recent party congress unity, but the lack of concrete sponsor collection news leaves a 24% chance he fails the 500-sponsor hurdle that has eliminated past candidates.

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Yes ≈ 37% chance

✨ The 8% odds reflect the near-total absence of Ségolène Royal from the French political scene and the lack of any recent announcement or credible campaign infrastructure, despite her past as a presidential candidate. The provided headlines are entirely unrelated to her or French politics, so no recent catalyst explains the odds—only the absence of Royal-related news reinforces the market's strong No bias.

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ Despite no recent headlines, François Asselineau's consistent failure to meet the 500-signature threshold in past elections and his very low polling numbers make a 2027 ballot appearance appear highly unlikely, with the market pricing in a near-certain 'No' based on historical precedent.

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 63% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

✨ Bayrou's political capital evaporated when his government collapsed in September 2025, making a presidential bid highly improbable; the 9% odds reflect a near-total consensus that he will not recover enough to appear on the 2027 ballot.

Yes ≈ 6% chance

✨ Élisabeth Borne, currently education minister and a former prime minister, has shown no signs of pursuing a presidential run, and the market's 1% odds reflect a near-consensus that she will not make the 2027 ballot.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ Yaël Braun-Pivet's re-election as National Assembly speaker in May 2026 reaffirmed her legislative role rather than any presidential ambition, and with no campaign signals or party backing, the market prices her 2027 ballot inclusion at near-zero—the real story is that even a senior Macron ally is not seen as a viable presidential contender from his centrist camp.

Yes ≈ 3% chance

✨ Jean Castex's 0% approval rating reflects his 4-year SNCF commitment through 2029, making a 2027 presidential run legally and practically implausible.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ Gérald Darmanin's near-total exclusion from the 2027 presidential ballot market (Yes 6%) reflects a consensus that he lacks the national stature and party machinery to secure the 500 elected sponsors required, with no recent headline suggesting a turnaround.

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

✨ Cazeneuve's 10% odds reflect deep skepticism that a former Socialist PM from the Hollande era can overcome Macron's centrist dominance and the fragmented left, despite being a perennial 'compromise candidate' in deadlock scenarios.

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

✨ Despite being a prominent figure in the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI), Mathilde Panot is almost certain not to appear on the 2027 presidential ballot because she has not declared a candidacy, lacks the necessary 500 elected-official sponsors, and her party's leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the likely standard-bearer.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

✨ Sarah Knafo is a far-right figure with ties to Eric Zemmour and Trump, but the market doubts she will secure the 500 endorsements needed to appear on the 2027 presidential ballot, especially with Zemmour himself preparing a second bid. The real story is not about her chances but about whether Reconquête! will have a single candidate or a split effort.

Yes ≈ 22% chance

✨ Despite being prime minister, Lecornu is overwhelmingly seen as having no path to the 2027 presidential ballot, with the market assigning a near-certain No — the real story is the collapse of his political credibility after a doomed premiership marked by a controversial reappointment and chronic legislative instability.

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ Nathalie Arthaud, a perennial candidate for the far-left Lutte Ouvrière, is heavily favored to appear on the 2027 ballot, but the real story is whether her party's recent alliance with the leftist New Popular Front might lead it to forego an independent candidacy—a risk the market is currently pricing as very low.

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ The market sees Karim Bouamrane as a near-certain loser for ballot access, not because he failed to announce—he did (Bloomberg, Jun 8)—but because his niche 'Master Poulet' local fame (France 24, Apr 28) has not translated into the national coalition or 500-sponsor threshold needed to reach the Constitutional Council's list.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ Michel-Edouard Leclerc is a retail executive with no declared presidential run and no political party machinery, so the 87% No odds reflect a near-consensus that he will not meet the 500 elected-official sponsorship threshold or self-declare.

Yes ≈ 9% chance

✨ Manuel Valls, a former French PM now serving as overseas territories minister, has shown no intention of running for president; the 96% odds against him reflect the absence of a campaign, party backing, or any public declaration, making a last-minute bid extremely unlikely.

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance

✨ Despite his reputation as a legal firebrand for pan-Africanist causes, Juan Branco appears to lack the domestic political base, party machinery, and signature sponsors required to pass France's stringent candidate-filtering process; recent headlines center on his foreign disputes and bitterness, not on building a campaign in France.

Yes ≈ 15% chance

✨ The market sees de Villiers as a fringe figure with near-zero chance of making the ballot, despite a small cultural-media footprint among conservative Catholics. The real story is whether his long-shot bid ever becomes credible enough to warrant even 9%, or whether the 92% holds all the way to 2027.

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance