Netanyahu out by...?
6 markets · 5mo
This event asks whether Benjamin Netanyahu will leave office (as Prime Minister of Israel, due to resignation, removal, or loss of power) by specific dates in 2026. Current odds show near-zero probability for early dates, but a notable 46% chance for the December 31 resolution, indicating some market belief he could depart by late 2026. The outcome hinges on coalition stability, legal pressures, and political opposition within the Knesset.
The case for YES
- • Netanyahu faces ongoing corruption trials and potential legal compulsion to step down, which could materialize by late 2026.
- • His coalition government is fragile, with recent polls indicating declining public support and possible defections that could force early elections.
- • The December 31 market date shows 46% odds, reflecting significant uncertainty and a non-trivial chance of his departure within that timeframe.
The case for NO
- • All earlier market dates (May through April) carry 100% odds against his departure, demonstrating strong belief that he will remain in power through at least mid-2026.
- • Netanyahu has historically survived political crises and legal attacks, sustaining his coalition through strategic alliances and legislative moves.
- • No concrete legislative or party moves to oust him have recently occurred, and his grip on the Likud party remains firm for now.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Netanyahu out by May 31?
The market has already expired with Netanyahu still in office, making a Yes resolution impossible; the 0% Yes odds reflect that the deadline passed without his departure.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? — December 31
The market sees a real possibility that Netanyahu leaves office by year's end, driven by an alarming election backdrop and a shifting international posture even as he publicly shows no sign of stepping down.
Yes ≈ 44% chance
Netanyahu out by March 31?
The market is pricing a 0% chance of Netanyahu leaving office by March 31, reflecting extreme confidence in his political survival despite ongoing regional tensions and domestic legal challenges.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Netanyahu out by June 30?
The market has already resolved to 'No' because Benjamin Netanyahu remained Prime Minister past the June 30, 2026 deadline; recent headlines about arrest threats and ICC criticism are irrelevant to the market's outcome.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Netanyahu out by April 30?
Despite Netanyahu defying the Supreme Court and drawing protest outrage, the market prices a zero percent chance of him leaving office by April 2027, suggesting bettors see his coalition as stable enough to survive isolated political storms and that U.S. pressure from Trump is not aimed at removing him.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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