Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

Yes ≈ 35% chance

✨ The market heavily favors 'No' because the current leader (Claude Fable 5) sits at 1523, a 77-point gap from 1600, and recent leaderboard movements show volatility from router issues rather than steady gains, making a 5% climb in six months unlikely without a breakthrough.

Yes ≈ 29% chance

✨ Claude Fable 5 holds a large lead, but the recent Fable router controversy and the ascent of Zhipu AI's GLM-5.2 show the leaderboard is volatile, making a 1560 threshold uncertain despite a slim market tilt towards 'Yes'.

Yes ≈ 40% chance