US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
7 markets · 5mo
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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
The market heavily favors No because Iran has repeatedly rejected handing over enriched uranium and is pursuing a transfer to China, making US possession unlikely without a dramatic reversal.
Yes ≈ 13% chance
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
Despite Trump's vow to seize Iran's enriched uranium (Yahoo Finance, May 21), repeated Iranian rejections of any handover (Crypto Briefing, May 15, May 22) and a plan to transfer the stockpile to China (Crypto Briefing, May 29) make a US possession deal before July 31 extremely unlikely, even by force.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?
Yes ≈ 8% chance
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
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