Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

✨ The market sees a near-zero chance of a full-scale invasion by September 30, 2026, but the real story is the steady ratcheting of gray-zone pressure—expanded coast guard patrols and shrinking response times—which could escalate into a crisis that redefines 'invasion' without crossing the market's clear military-offensive threshold.

Yes ≈ 2% chance