Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ Despite recent Houthi attacks and a declared naval blockade on Saudi tankers, the odds of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait being effectively closed (≤10 daily transits) by September 30 have dropped sharply, suggesting the market views the current disruption as insufficient to meet the strict IMF PortWatch metric.

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ Escalating Houthi and Iranian threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are being met with market skepticism, as the 33% Yes probability reflects doubt that maritime traffic will drop to the extreme threshold of 10 transits per week despite bold declarations.

Yes ≈ 23% chance

✨ Despite headlines of Houthi attacks and a blockade on Saudi tankers, the market sees a 0% chance of the Bab el-Mandeb effectively closing by July 31 because the resolution metric—a 7-day moving average of transit calls ≤10—is a lagging indicator that cannot drop that low in the remaining few days given normal traffic of ~70-80 per day.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ The market heavily favors No despite a surge in Houthi attacks and threats, because the resolution metric—a 7-day moving average of transit calls at or below 10—is an extreme threshold that even a sharp drop in traffic is unlikely to meet within the timeframe, and the recent headlines about attacks and blockades have not yet translated into a sustained collapse in shipping transits.

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance