What will happen before GTA VI?

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ Despite a sharp drop in ceasefire expectations over the past week, the market still prices a ceasefire before GTA VI's release as more likely than not, driven by Ukraine's continued openness to negotiations even as Russia escalates military action.

Yes ≈ 100% chance

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 51% chance

✨ The market is perfectly split because Bitcoin's path to $1M requires an unprecedented ~15x rally from its current $65K level before GTA VI's release, yet the lack of a concrete GTA VI release date means the clock could run out or extend indefinitely, creating a symmetric bet on two extreme unknowns.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Yes ≈ 100% chance