How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
7 markets · 1mo
The market heavily discounts United Russia winning more than 354 seats (No 86%) or fewer than 280 (No 98%), with the bulk of probability mass concentrated in the 310–354 range, suggesting traders expect a comfortable but reduced majority compared to the supermajority of 2016 and 2021.
📊 Base rate: United Russia has won at least 300 seats in every election since 2003, averaging about 315 seats over the last four cycles.
What's driving it
- • The war in Ukraine and Western sanctions have eroded public trust in the government, likely depressing United Russia's vote share (Reuters, Jul 2026).
- • A fragmented opposition, with no single party polling above 10%, still leaves United Russia as the dominant force (Reuters, Jul 2026).
- • The Kremlin's administrative resources and media control remain intact, but economic stagnation and inflation are key headwinds (Reuters, Jul 2026).
The bullish case
- • United Russia's organizational strength and state media dominance can still deliver a majority even with lower turnout.
- • The opposition is divided and lacks a unifying leader or platform, making it hard to consolidate protest votes.
- • A snap election or changes to electoral rules could be engineered to boost United Russia's seat count.
The bearish case
- • Growing public discontent over the war and economic hardship could push many voters to stay home or vote for protest candidates.
- • Even a small swing against United Russia could push it below 310 seats, given the mixed-member proportional system.
- • The regime may allow a modest reduction in seats to create a veneer of competition without losing control.
What to watch
- • Any major battlefield setback or peace talks in Ukraine could shift public sentiment and affect turnout (likely direction: lower United Russia seats).
- • A new opposition alliance or prominent defector could consolidate the anti-regime vote (likely direction: lower United Russia seats).
- • An official announcement of the election date or any change to electoral laws would clarify the playing field (likely direction: uncertain).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — <280
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — 280–294
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — 295–309
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — 310–324
Yes ≈ 23% chance
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — 325–339
Yes ≈ 26% chance
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — 340–354
Yes ≈ 23% chance
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — 355+
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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