Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent
8 markets · 1y
✨ Ask about this eventMarkets in this event
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election? — At least 40%
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election? — At least 35%
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election? — At least 30%
Count Binface, a satirical candidate, is riding a wave of anti-Farage sentiment and viral media coverage, but the 30% threshold is historically unprecedented for a novelty candidate in a UK by-election, making the 23% Yes odds a reflection of his outsized media presence rather than realistic vote share expectations.
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election? — At least 25%
Yes ≈ 31% chance
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election? — At least 20%
Yes ≈ 40% chance
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election? — At least 15%
Yes ≈ 67% chance
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election? — At least 10%
The 80% odds reflect a market belief that Count Binface can harness an anti-Farage protest vote in a low-turnout by-election, turning a satirical candidacy into a serious double-digit share.
Yes ≈ 72% chance
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election? — At least 5%
Count Binface's unexpectedly strong media buzz and Farage's polarizing presence make the 5% threshold seem achievable, but the odds may overstate the novelty vote's durability against established party machines.
Yes ≈ 88% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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