US gasoline CPI for July

What's driving it

• • No clear recent headline explains the current odds, but the tight clustering of probabilities around 330-340 suggests traders are pricing in a stable, moderate increase from prior months (likely due to steady crude oil prices and typical seasonal demand).
• • The sharp drop in probability above 340 (from 86% at 330 to 3% at 340) indicates a strong consensus that a major supply shock or surge in demand is unlikely in the near term.

What to watch

• • EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (July 24): A large draw in gasoline inventories or a drop in refinery utilization could boost expectations for a higher CPI, but the odds imply a low chance of such a surprise.
• • Monthly Consumer Price Index release (August 2026): The actual July gasoline CPI number will resolve these markets, but any preliminary forecasts or anecdotal data (e.g., from gas station surveys) in the final week of July could shift the odds slightly.