Will Trump end income tax for people earning under $150k?
1 markets · 5mo
The market strongly doubts Trump will end income tax for earners under $150k before 2027 (No 96%), implying deep skepticism that any such bill would pass Congress or that Trump would prioritize it over other tax issues.
📊 Base rate: Major tax overhauls typically take years to enact and rarely pass without bipartisan support; the last broad income tax cut (the TCJA of 2017) took nearly a year from proposal to law.
What's driving it
- • No recent headline notes any concrete legislative proposal from Trump on this specific income tax elimination, leaving the market to price extreme unlikelihood without a policy push.
- • The current odds (No 96%) reflect the entrenched view that such a sweeping change would require both unified Republican control and overcoming filibuster rules, which is very uncertain.
- • Market participants likely factor in that Trump's tax focus in recent campaign materials has centered on extending the 2017 tax cuts, not creating a new zero-bracket for incomes under $150k.
- • The timeline 'before 2027' is short relative to the typical legislative calendar for major tax reform, especially if a new presidential term starts in January 2025.
The bullish case
- • If Trump won the 2024 election and Republicans controlled both chambers, he could push an ambitious tax bill in 2025 or 2026, and eliminating income tax for lower earners could be a populist centerpiece.
- • A major economic downturn or crisis could create a 'do anything' atmosphere that bypasses normal gridlock, enabling swift passage of such a tax cut.
- • Trump could sign an executive order or use administrative action to effectively create a de facto tax forgiveness for earners under $150k, though this would face legal challenges.
The bearish case
- • No recent legislative proposal or announced plan exists for this specific tax elimination, making it a low-probability event given the short timeframe.
- • Fiscal conservatives in Congress would likely oppose abolishing income tax for such a large swath of earners due to massive revenue loss (estimated $2+ trillion over a decade).
- • The odds (96% No) indicate near-total doubt that any progress on this could occur before 2027, possibly because it would require rewriting the entire tax code.
What to watch
- • Trump announcing a detailed policy proposal for this tax elimination would shift odds toward Yes, as it signals serious intent.
- • The 2024 presidential election outcome will be a major catalyst: a Trump victory plus Republican Congress would increase Yes probability; a loss would push Yes near zero.
- • A congressional budget resolution or tax reform debate in 2025 that includes this provision could move odds; if excluded, No odds would strengthen.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will Trump waive taxes for people earning under $150k? — Before 2027
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…