Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?

What's driving it

• • Eisenkot's 50% odds likely reflect his recent political entry and military credibility, but no specific headline cites a catalyst for his rise, leaving the market split on his viability.
• • Bennett's 84% No odds suggest the market doubts his return after his brief premiership ended in 2022, despite his current role as opposition leader, with no recent headlines indicating a comeback.
• • The 100% No for Smotrich and 98% for Ben-Gvir indicate the market sees far-right figures as unlikely to unify a coalition, given their polarizing stances and no recent shift in public support.
• • Lapid's 97% No odds imply the market views his centrist bloc as insufficient to form a government without a broader coalition, consistent with his failed 2022 attempt.

What to watch

• • A Knesset vote on a no-confidence motion or coalition dissolution, likely before September 2026, would shift odds toward Eisenkot if successful, or reinforce the No camp if it fails.
• • Netanyahu's corruption trial verdict, expected by late 2026, could trigger a resignation if he is convicted, boosting Eisenkot's Yes odds sharply.
• • A major security crisis, such as a war or terror attack, might elevate a military figure like Eisenkot as a unity candidate, similar to how Sharon's security credentials propelled him in 2001.