KalshiWorldOpenUpdated Apr 9, 2026

Who will the next Pope be?

7 markets · —

AI overview· Updated 1d ago

The market is overwhelmingly betting that none of these seven named cardinals will become the next pope, implying a wide-open race with a likely dark-horse or candidate not yet in the spotlight.

📊 Base rate: Historically, in the last five papal elections, the eventual winner was not among the top betting favorites months before the conclave, so the current ~96-98% No odds on each named candidate are consistent with the typical uncertainty around papal succession.

What's driving it

• The uniformly high No odds across all seven candidates indicate the market sees no clear frontrunner among them, likely due to Pope Francis’s pontificate still ongoing with no immediate resignation or death.
• The lack of significant differentiation in odds (all 96-98%) suggests no recent news or scandal has elevated any of these cardinals, making the field appear flat and unpredictable.
• The market may be pricing in a high probability of a surprise election from outside the small group of often-mentioned names, as seen in previous conclaves.

The bullish case

• If Pope Francis were to resign or die unexpectedly, a conclave could be called, and cardinals like Parolin or Tagle have been discussed as plausible successors, though their odds remain low.
• Any of these cardinals could emerge as a compromise candidate after multiple ballots, especially if the conclave is deadlocked between ideological factions.

The bearish case

• The market assigns a 96-98% chance that the next pope is not one of these seven, implying strong belief that the actual successor is either a different cardinal or a dark horse not yet in the public eye.
• The current pontificate is ongoing, and papal transitions are inherently rare and unpredictable, making it unlikely that any specific named candidate gains high probability this far in advance.
• Historical precedent shows that the eventual pope often comes from outside the early betting favorites, as happened with Pope Francis in 2013.

What to watch

• A sudden resignation or health deterioration of Pope Francis would sharply increase attention on all candidates, likely moving odds on the named cardinals but not necessarily making them favorites.
• The release of a papal document or public statement from a cardinal (e.g., Parolin or Zuppi) that signals ambition or a platform could temporarily boost their odds.
• A scandal or major controversy involving one of the seven cardinals would reduce their odds further, while a successful diplomatic intervention by one could elevate them.

AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.

✨ Ask about this event