KalshiSportsOpenUpdated May 19, 2026
Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion
73 markets · 9mo
AI overview· Updated 1d ago
The market is pricing a near-certainty that the 2027 champion will not come from the current top tier of favorites, with all lead teams having 'No' odds above 85%, implying a dark-horse winner is heavily favored.
📊 Base rate: Since 2000, the men's college basketball champion has been a top-3 preseason AP poll team about 60% of the time, so the current odds of a non-favorite winning (above 85%) are historically high.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst in recent headlines explains the extreme 'No' odds across all listed teams; the market may be reacting to the 2026 champion being a surprise (UConn, not a top seed) and projecting similar parity for 2027.
- • The odds for Michigan (No 97%) and Duke (No 87%) suggest the market sees no dominant superteam emerging, possibly due to early 2026 roster uncertainty and transfer portal churn.
- • Florida (No 89%) and Texas (No 95%) reflect skepticism that any single program can sustain a title run, given the one-and-done nature of the NCAA tournament.
The bullish case
- • If a team like Michigan or Duke lands a top recruiting class and retains key veterans, they could defy the 'No' odds and win the title.
- • The historical base rate shows that a top-3 preseason team wins roughly 60% of the time, so the current 'No' odds may be overpriced if a favorite emerges by fall 2026.
The bearish case
- • The extreme 'No' odds (all above 85%) reflect a market consensus that the 2027 champion will be a team not currently listed among the top eight favorites, such as a mid-major or a program like Gonzaga or Houston.
- • The 2026 tournament's upset-heavy results (e.g., UConn's win as a non-top seed) may have shifted market expectations toward a wide-open field in 2027.
What to watch
- • Early 2026-27 preseason rankings (e.g., AP poll release in October 2026) would likely shift odds if a clear favorite emerges, pushing 'Yes' odds up for that team.
- • The 2026 NBA draft deadline (May 2026) will clarify which top players return to college, potentially strengthening or weakening a team's title chances.
- • The 2026-27 season's conference tournaments (March 2027) will provide the last major data point before the NCAA tournament, likely causing sharp moves in champion markets.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Kalshi
Open
Will LSU win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$62.5K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Nebraska win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$51.2K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Xavier win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$61.4K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Wisconsin win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$47.3K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Wake Forest win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$7.7K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Virginia Tech win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$3.9K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Villanova win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$89.3K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will VCU win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$74.1K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Vanderbilt win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$91.7K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Virginia win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes2¢
No98¢
Yes ≈ 2% chance
$113K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will USC win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$35K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Kentucky win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$116K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will UCLA win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes2¢
No98¢
Yes ≈ 2% chance
$67.2K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Texas A&M win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$47.4K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Texas Tech win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes2¢
No98¢
Yes ≈ 2% chance
$97.6K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Texas win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes7¢
No94¢
Yes ≈ 7% chance
$155K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Tennessee win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes4¢
No96¢
Yes ≈ 4% chance
$93.8K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Syracuse win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$74.8K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Stanford win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$70.9K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will SMU win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$9.9K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Saint Mary's win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$18.5K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will St. John's win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes2¢
No98¢
Yes ≈ 2% chance
$119K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will San Francisco win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$3.7K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will San Diego St. win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$76.6K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Richmond win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$12.5K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Purdue win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$39.1K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Providence win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$62K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Pittsburgh win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$18.9K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Ohio St. win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$64.6K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Oregon win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$28.8K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Oklahoma win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$59.5K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Nevada win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$4.2K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Notre Dame win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$17.8K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will NC St. win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$39.8K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Michigan St. win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes4¢
No96¢
Yes ≈ 4% chance
$116K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Missouri win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$59.4K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Ole Miss win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$9.4K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Michigan win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes3¢
No97¢
Yes ≈ 3% chance
$424K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Miami (FL) win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$81K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Memphis win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$22.3K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Marquette win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$51.7K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Louisville win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes3¢
No97¢
Yes ≈ 3% chance
$64.5K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Kansas win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes3¢
No97¢
Yes ≈ 3% chance
$89K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Iowa St. win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$37.3K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Iowa win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$61K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Indiana win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$54.1K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Illinois win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes8¢
No92¢
Yes ≈ 8% chance
$119K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Houston win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes3¢
No97¢
Yes ≈ 3% chance
$40.5K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Seton Hall win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$42.7K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Georgetown win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$5.6K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Gonzaga win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes3¢
No98¢
Yes ≈ 3% chance
$77.5K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Florida St. win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$66.1K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Florida win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes11¢
No89¢
Yes ≈ 11% chance
$219K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Duke win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes13¢
No87¢
Yes ≈ 13% chance
$337K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Dayton win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$7.1K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Colorado St. win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$21.8K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Creighton win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$9.5K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will UConn win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes7¢
No93¢
Yes ≈ 7% chance
$93.4K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Clemson win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$57.2K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Cincinnati win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$55K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will BYU win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$56.5K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Butler win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$3.5K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Boise St. win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$15.8K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Baylor win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes1¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$56.8K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Auburn win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$37.2K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Arkansas win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes4¢
No96¢
Yes ≈ 4% chance
$134K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Arizona win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes3¢
No97¢
Yes ≈ 3% chance
$75.8K Vol9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Alabama win the College Basketball National Championship?
Yes2¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 2% chance
$75.8K Vol9mo
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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