Lowest temperature in Dallas on Jul 26, 2026?
6 markets · 16h
The market is near-certain that today's low in Dallas will be 79-80°F, a narrow band slightly above the historical average, implying that actual observed temperatures or highly reliable forecasts have already locked in that range.
📊 Base rate: The median low temperature in Dallas on July 26 over the past 30 years is approximately 77°F (NOAA NCEI data), so the current 79-80°F expectation is a few degrees warmer than typical.
What's driving it
- • The extreme concentration of probability in the 79-80°F range (93% Yes) suggests that either the low has already been recorded by official weather stations or the latest National Weather Service forecast pins it exactly there.
- • The 99% No odds on adjacent ranges (77-78°F, 81-82°F) indicate that forecast confidence is exceptionally high and that any deviation is seen as nearly impossible.
The bullish case
- • Pre-dawn temperatures in Dallas on July 26, 2026, likely bottomed out at 79-80°F, matching the most probable outcome from high-resolution weather models.
- • The near-consensus market odds (93%) reflect that the low temperature has been observed or is already settled, with no major weather systems expected to cause a late deviation.
The bearish case
- • An unexpected cold front or persistent cloud cover could push the low into the 77-78°F range, although the market assigns only 6% probability to that outcome.
- • If official temperature readings from DFW Airport differ from the expected range due to microclimate effects, the outcome could fall outside 79-80°F, but the 99% No on other ranges makes this remote.
What to watch
- • Publication of the official National Weather Service daily summary for Dallas on July 26, 2026, which would confirm the low and likely resolve the market in favor of 79-80°F.
- • Any unexpected late-hour temperature reading from a major automated station (e.g., DFW Airport) that contradicts the current forecast would shift odds, but such an event is highly unlikely given the current market structure.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will the minimum temperature be >82° on Jul 26, 2026? — 83° or above
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the minimum temperature be <75° on Jul 26, 2026? — 74° or below
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the minimum temperature be 81-82° on Jul 26, 2026? — 81° to 82°
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the minimum temperature be 79-80° on Jul 26, 2026? — 79° to 80°
Yes ≈ 93% chance
Will the minimum temperature be 77-78° on Jul 26, 2026? — 77° to 78°
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Will the minimum temperature be 75-76° on Jul 26, 2026? — 75° to 76°
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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