Total space launches in July
8 markets · 12d
The market is pricing a narrow window of 13-14 total launches for July, with near-certainty that the count will not exceed 14, suggesting a known manifest with limited remaining capacity.
What's driving it
- • The 92% probability on 'Above 13' indicates strong confidence that at least 14 launches will occur, likely reflecting completed launches through July 24.
- • The 84% probability on 'No Above 14' shows the market expects exactly 14 launches, with any additional launch seen as unlikely.
- • The near-0% odds on thresholds above 15 imply that no further launches beyond a known final mission are anticipated in the last six days of July.
The bullish case
- • A last-minute unscheduled launch or a successful reattempt of a scrubbed mission could push the count to 15.
- • If a previously unannounced small satellite launch is added to the manifest, the total could exceed 14.
The bearish case
- • The current manifest likely has no further launches scheduled after July 25, given the high confidence in the 14-launch ceiling.
- • Any remaining launches in the last week are prone to delays, keeping the count at 14 or below.
- • Historical July launch rates and typical end-of-month slowdowns support a final tally of 14.
What to watch
- • Any announcement of a new launch for July 26-31 would increase the probability of exceeding 14.
- • A successful launch of a major mission currently scheduled for late July could confirm the 14th launch and reduce uncertainty.
- • A delay or scrub of a planned launch before July 31 would reinforce the 14-launch ceiling.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 20
Yes ≈ 2% chance
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 19
Yes ≈ 2% chance
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 18
Yes ≈ 2% chance
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 17
The market is overwhelmingly pessimistic that U.S. commercial operators will exceed 17 launches in July 2026, but the provided headlines are entirely unrelated to launch activity, leaving the odds driven by a lack of positive news rather than any specific negative catalyst.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 16
Yes ≈ 2% chance
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 15
Yes ≈ 2% chance
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 14
Yes ≈ 20% chance
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 13
Despite a lack of recent headlines directly tracking July launch counts, the market is pricing near-certainty that U.S. commercial operators will exceed 13 launches, likely reflecting an already achieved or well-advanced cadence as the month winds down.
Yes ≈ 94% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…