KalshiPoliticsOpenUpdated Jul 8, 2026

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

3 markets · 1y

AI overview· Updated 1d ago

The FL-25 Democratic primary is effectively a two-way race between Jared Moskowitz and Oliver Larkin, with Moskowitz heavily favored at 85% despite Larkin's 83% 'No' implying strong opposition, while Debbie Wasserman Schultz is considered a non-factor at 99% 'No'—the market sees Moskowitz's establishment backing and name recognition as decisive, but Larkin's 'No' odds suggest a significant anti-Moskowitz sentiment that could shift if a scandal or late endorsement emerges.

📊 Base rate: In open-seat U.S. House primaries since 2010, the candidate with the highest name recognition or prior elected office wins about 70% of the time, making Moskowitz's 85% odds slightly above the historical norm for a frontrunner.

What's driving it

• Moskowitz's 85% 'Yes' reflects his prior experience as a state representative and his high-profile role in the Florida Democratic Party, which gives him a structural advantage in fundraising and endorsements (no recent headline cited, but odds imply this).
• Larkin's 83% 'No' indicates that while he is the main alternative, the market sees a low probability of him overcoming Moskowitz's lead, likely due to a lack of major endorsements or media coverage (no clear catalyst recently).
• Wasserman Schultz's 99% 'No' signals that her long tenure and past controversies, including the DNC email leak, make her a non-viable candidate in this district, as the market expects her to either not run or lose decisively (no recent headline, but odds are extreme).

The bullish case

• Moskowitz has a proven track record in Florida politics and could leverage his network to outraise and out-organize Larkin, as seen in his previous campaigns.
• The 85% odds suggest strong institutional confidence, likely from early polling or donor commitments that have not been publicly detailed.
• If Wasserman Schultz does not enter the race, Moskowitz becomes the clear establishment choice, consolidating support from party insiders.

The bearish case

• Larkin could capitalize on anti-establishment sentiment or a grassroots movement, as his 83% 'No' implies a sizable opposition base that might be underestimated.
• A late entry by a well-funded candidate or a scandal involving Moskowitz could upend the race, though no such event is currently indicated.
• Low voter turnout in a primary could favor a motivated minority, potentially benefiting Larkin if he has a dedicated volunteer network.

What to watch

• Florida's candidate filing deadline (likely early 2026): if Wasserman Schultz files to run, it could split the establishment vote and boost Larkin's chances.
• A major endorsement from a national figure like a senator or governor: if Larkin gets it, his 'No' odds could drop; if Moskowitz gets it, his 'Yes' odds could rise further.
• A public poll showing Larkin within single digits of Moskowitz: this would narrow the gap and increase uncertainty, potentially moving Larkin's 'No' below 80%.

AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.

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