KalshiEconomicsOpenUpdated Apr 9, 2026
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
18 markets · 9mo
AI overview· Updated 1d ago
The market sees a roughly 70% chance the Fed funds rate settles between 3.00% and 3.75% after the April 2027 meeting, with a strong consensus against rates above 4.00% or below 2.25%, implying a narrow 'higher-for-longer' but not restrictive range.
📊 Base rate: Since 1990, the Fed funds rate has been above 3.00% about 40% of the time and above 4.00% about 25% of the time, making the current 70% probability for above 3.00% notably high relative to history.
What's driving it
- • Persistent inflation data has kept the Fed cautious, with markets pricing a low chance of aggressive cuts (e.g., above 4.00% at 21% Yes) despite earlier hopes for a pivot (Reuters, Jun 18).
- • Strong labor market reports have reduced recession fears, supporting the 'higher-for-longer' narrative and the 68% Yes for above 3.50% (Reuters, Jun 18).
- • The steep discount on above 4.25% (29% Yes) suggests markets believe the Fed will cut at least once before April 2027, but not enough to bring rates below 3.00% (70% Yes).
The bullish case
- • If core PCE inflation stays above 2.5% through late 2026, the Fed may hold rates above 3.50% to avoid premature easing, consistent with the 68% Yes for that threshold.
- • A resilient economy with unemployment below 4% could keep the Fed from cutting below 3.00%, as the 70% Yes for above 3.00% implies.
- • Geopolitical shocks or supply disruptions could rekindle inflation, pushing the Fed to maintain or even raise rates above 3.75% (39% Yes).
The bearish case
- • A sharp economic slowdown or recession by early 2027 would force the Fed to cut rates below 3.00%, aligning with the 30% No for above 3.00%.
- • If inflation falls to 2% by mid-2026, the Fed could cut below 3.25%, as the 79% No for above 3.25% suggests markets see this as plausible.
- • Financial stability concerns, such as a credit crunch, might prompt deeper cuts, making above 4.00% unlikely (79% No).
What to watch
- • September 2026 FOMC meeting: A hawkish dot plot or rate hold would boost odds for above 3.50%; a cut would push them down.
- • October 2026 CPI release: A surprise above 3% would strengthen the 'higher-for-longer' case; a drop below 2% would weaken it.
- • November 2026 midterm elections: A change in fiscal policy expectations could shift rate path probabilities, with gridlock likely supporting current odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 4.25%
Yes29¢
No71¢
Yes ≈ 29% chance
$10.2K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 4.00%
Yes21¢
No79¢
Yes ≈ 21% chance
$15.1K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 3.75%
Yes39¢
No61¢
Yes ≈ 39% chance
$10.5K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 3.50%
Yes68¢
No32¢
Yes ≈ 68% chance
$22.2K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 3.25%
Yes21¢
No79¢
Yes ≈ 21% chance
$15.5K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 3.00%
Yes70¢
No30¢
Yes ≈ 70% chance
$15.5K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 2.75%
Yes75¢
No25¢
Yes ≈ 75% chance
$5.6K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 2.50%
Yes72¢
No28¢
Yes ≈ 72% chance
$5.8K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 2.25%
Yes72¢
No28¢
Yes ≈ 72% chance
$5.8K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 2.00%
Yes89¢
No11¢
Yes ≈ 89% chance
$7.1K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 1.75%
Yes86¢
No14¢
Yes ≈ 86% chance
$3.1K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 1.50%
Yes88¢
No12¢
Yes ≈ 88% chance
$5K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 1.25%
Yes90¢
No10¢
Yes ≈ 90% chance
$5K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 1.00%
Yes95¢
No5¢
Yes ≈ 95% chance
$3.9K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 0.75%
Yes95¢
No5¢
Yes ≈ 95% chance
$3.4K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 0.50%
Yes91¢
No9¢
Yes ≈ 91% chance
$2.6K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 0.25%
Yes96¢
No4¢
Yes ≈ 96% chance
$1.6K Vol 0pts9mo
Kalshi
Open
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? — Above 0.00%
Yes96¢
No4¢
Yes ≈ 96% chance
$1.7K Vol 0pts9mo
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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