KalshiCultureOpenUpdated Jul 9, 2026

How many Emmys will 'DTF St. Louis ' win?

13 markets · 5mo

AI overview· Updated 5d ago

The market is heavily discounting each exact Emmy count for 'DTF St. Louis', with the highest (still low) probability assigned to moderate numbers like 3, 5, and 6, suggesting the show is seen as a potential minor winner but not a dominant force; the absence of markets for common counts like 1 or 2 implies the true expectation may be lower than any offered option.

📊 Base rate: In the past decade, the average Emmy-winning series has won between 2 and 5 Emmys per season, making the market's strong No on high numbers (9–13) consistent with historical norms.

What's driving it

• The near-consensus No on counts 9–13 (97%+ No) indicates the market is certain the show will not be a major Emmy winner, pricing those outcomes as near-impossible.
• The slightly less extreme odds on 3, 5, and 6 (83–92% No) suggest the market sees a small but non-zero chance of a moderate win, but still considers each unlikely.
• The absence of a market for zero Emmys leaves the possibility that the show wins nothing, which is consistent with the high No across all offered exact counts and implies the market's best guess is a count not listed.

The bullish case

• If the show surprises with a strong critical reception, the moderate counts (3, 5, 6) are the most plausible based on the market's less extreme odds, leaving room for an upset.
• Even a modest haul of 3–6 Emmys would require the show to win in multiple categories, which is possible if it is a breakout hit in a weak field.

The bearish case

• The market's overwhelming No on all exact counts suggests the show is expected to win zero or a number not offered (such as 1 or 2), which are common outcomes for new series with limited buzz.
• Historical Emmy winners rarely hit high exact counts like 9–13, and the market's extreme pricing on those numbers reflects a consensus that the show is not a top-tier contender.

What to watch

• The announcement of the 2026 Emmy nominations, expected in mid-July, would clarify the show's category presence and likely shift odds toward the numbers matching its nomination count.
• The Emmy ceremony itself (typically in September) would resolve all markets, but interim awards buzz and critics' reviews could move odds on the moderate counts if the show gains momentum.

AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.

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