KalshiEconomicsOpenUpdated May 4, 2026
US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026
5 markets · 4d
✨ Ask about this eventMarkets in this event
Kalshi
Open
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 7.5%? — Above 7.5%
Yes71¢
No29¢
Yes ≈ 71% chance
$763 Vol 0pts4d
Kalshi
Open
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 5%? — Above 5%
The market heavily favors Yes because the US effective tariff rate has already been pushed above 5% by the Liberation Day tariffs and a Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs, making a Q2 2026 reading above 5% almost a foregone conclusion unless legal refunds or trade policy reversals cause a significant drop in duties collected.
Yes92¢
No8¢
Yes ≈ 92% chance
$7.6K Vol 0pts4d
Kalshi
Open
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 15%? — Above 15%
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$8.9K Vol 0pts4d
Kalshi
Open
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 12.5%? — Above 12.5%
Yes2¢
No98¢
Yes ≈ 2% chance
$3.7K Vol 0pts4d
Kalshi
Open
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 10%? — Above 10%
Yes14¢
No86¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
$4.3K Vol 0pts4d
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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