Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
16 markets · 5mo
The market's clear favorite is South Sudan (66% Yes), reflecting sustained transmission risks in neighboring DRC and low vaccination rates, while high-income countries (US 82% No, China 91% No) are seen as nearly immune due to robust health systems and recent outbreak-free track records. The key divide is not between West and East Africa but between fragile border states (Congo, Burundi, Rwanda) and better-prepared nations.
What's driving it
- • South Sudan's Yes lead to 66% follows the June 2026 WHO report of cross-border health alerts at the Uganda–South Sudan border and low vaccination coverage in refugee camps (Reuters, Jun 25).
- • The US and China odds (No 82–91%) hardened after the CDC and NHC each published enhanced surveillance protocols in May 2026, citing zero domestic cases in the prior 12 months (CDC, May 15; NHC, May 22).
- • Rwanda and Burundi (Yes 31% each) reflect the July 1 statement by the Africa CDC that both countries share porous borders with DRC outbreak zones, but have not yet activated emergency operations (Africa CDC, Jul 1).
The bullish case
- • South Sudan's 66% Yes probability is the strongest signal: ongoing cross-border movement from the DRC outbreak, low healthcare infrastructure, and no recent mass vaccination campaign in border areas.
- • Republic of the Congo (17% Yes) may see spillover from DRC's northern outbreak, as the WHO noted on June 30 that nine travelers from DRC entered Congo-Brazzaville in the past week through informal river crossings (WHO, Jun 30).
- • Rwanda and Burundi's ~31% each show markets assign a real chance of single imported cases, given their airports are hubs for regional transit and screening is not comprehensive at all land borders.
The bearish case
- • The US (82% No) and China (91% No) odds indicate strong market confidence that high-biocontainment hospitals, contact-tracing capacity, and travel screening at major airports will prevent any confirmed case from being reported as a domestic infection.
- • India (82% No) after its July 2025 national simulation exercise and tightened health declaration forms for all incoming travelers, which the Ministry of Health said reduced false-positive alerts by 95% (MoH India, Jul 2025).
- • Kenya (74% No) benefits from the East African Community's joint border surveillance program launched in March 2026, which detected three suspected cases that all tested negative for Ebola (EAC, Apr 2026).
What to watch
- • DRC Ministry of Health weekly case count updates (every Monday) – if they report a sharp uptick in cases near the South Sudan border, expect South Sudan Yes to rise further.
- • WHO Emergency Committee meeting on the DRC outbreak (scheduled for August 4, 2026) – a declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern could boost Yes probabilities for all neighbors.
- • US CDC issuance of new travel restrictions for affected regions (no date announced) – if the US reimposes entry screening for recent DRC travelers, the US No could weaken slightly.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
The market is pricing a low probability (27%) that Ebola reaches Tanzania despite a major Bundibugyo virus outbreak declared a global emergency in neighboring DRC and Uganda, reflecting the absence of any reported cases or official alerts in Tanzania so far.
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Nigeria be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 54% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Republic of the Congo
The market is pricing a low 15% chance of Ebola crossing from the massive DRC outbreak into the Republic of the Congo, but the real story is that the DRC outbreak has already killed 930 people and is growing, with health workers facing attacks and an experimental vaccine strategy being considered, making cross-border spillover a tangible risk that the odds may understate.
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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