Will crypto market structure legislation become law?

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Yes ≈ 20% chance

✨ The market sees near-zero chance of a crypto market structure bill becoming law by September 1, 2026, despite recent bipartisan talks and White House agreement on ethics provisions, because the CLARITY Act's passage odds have hit a historic low and a Senate ethics dispute threatens progress.

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Yes ≈ 53% chance

✨ With only six days until the deadline, the crypto market structure bill faces near-insurmountable odds despite recent White House agreement on ethics provisions, as the Senate has only just reopened talks and the bill has not yet passed either chamber.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ The CLARITY Act, the primary crypto market structure bill, is losing momentum as the August recess deadline approaches and President Trump's financial disclosure and new demands erode support, making the 38% Yes odds increasingly vulnerable.

Yes ≈ 37% chance