Who will have a top 20 song this year?

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Yes ≈ 48% chance

✨ Justin Timberlake's single likely needs a major promotional push or viral moment to break into the top 20, as his recent public focus has been on personal family news and legal issues, not new music.

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Yes ≈ 51% chance

✨ Swae Lee's odds are low because he lacks a recent top-20 hit and his current promotional activity—merchandise, international shows, and festival buzz—hasn't translated into a Billboard Hot 100 breakthrough, though his viral Coachella set and BET Awards performance show he still has cultural momentum.

Yes ≈ 12% chance

✨ Stray Kids' new EP release on July 23, 2026, generates buzz, but the market remains deeply skeptical because the group has never cracked the Billboard Hot 100 top 20—their peak is #49—and only a handful of K-pop acts have ever done so, making a breakthrough this year highly improbable.

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

✨ Despite recent recognition at The Ivors, ROSALÍA lacks a clear chart hit in 2026, making a top-20 Billboard Hot 100 entry highly unlikely based on current odds and no major single releases.

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 95% chance

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

✨ J Balvin's odds of a Hot 100 top 20 hit remain low (17%) because his recent releases, including a Bizarrap collab and a new album, have not broken into the top tier of the mainstream chart, despite continued Latin radio dominance.

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Yes ≈ 37% chance

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 98% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Yes ≈ 21% chance