Who will have a #1 hit this year?

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

✨ The market says Grimes has virtually no chance of a #1 hit in 2026, largely because the recent headlines that could be relevant actually refer to a different Grimes—country artist Luke Grimes—and the actual musician Grimes has been focused on industry criticism rather than releasing new music.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

✨ Despite a joint tour with Chris Brown generating media buzz in April 2026, Usher's odds of a #1 hit remain near-zero because no new single or album has been announced, and his last #1 came in 2010.

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 92% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 13% chance

✨ Lady Gaga has not released a new single in 2026, and the recent headlines show no sign of an imminent drop, making a #1 hit this year a long shot despite her past success.

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts Future's chances of a #1 hit in 2026, but the lack of any recent headline about his music means the low odds are driven by a quiet period rather than a specific negative event; a surprise release or feature could shift the odds.

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

✨ Despite new singles and festival appearances, David Guetta has never scored a #1 Hot 100 hit as a credited artist, and his recent releases lack the commercial momentum to break that streak in 2026, keeping odds low.

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ Daft Punk's inactivity since 2021 and lack of any #1 hit in their history make a #1 in 2026 extremely unlikely, and recent headlines only reinforce their absence from the music scene.

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ Despite Coldplay's massive 2025 tour success, the market heavily discounts a new #1 hit in 2026 because the band has released no new music this year and their last Hot 100 #1 required a BTS collaboration.

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 45% chance

✨ Despite an active tour schedule and media presence, Benson Boone has not yet achieved a #1 hit this year, and with only five months left, the market heavily favors a 'No' resolution.

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

✨ 21 Savage's odds of a #1 hit in 2026 are extremely low at 4%, largely because his last album dropped in December 2025 and failed to produce a chart-topping single, with no new music or major feature announced since then.

Yes ≈ 4% chance