The same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply about a 7% chance that China will blockade Taiwan in 2026, with a small disagreement between real-money Polymarket (7%) and play-money Manifold (10%), likely due to different user bases or liquidity levels.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
How each venue’s Yes has moved
Tap a venue to show/hide its line
Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.