The same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 9%–18%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Prediction markets collectively imply about an 18% chance that Kim Jong-Un will visit the United States during Trump's term, though the play-money market on Manifold shows a lower 9% chance, likely due to different participant incentives.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.