Is Earth flat?

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Across venues

· updated 1hPredictPal Consensus

2%blended Yes · 2 venuesMedium reliability

The same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.

Across prediction markets, the collective odds suggest a 2% chance that Earth is flat, with both real-money Polymarket and play-money Manifold showing nearly identical low probabilities.

Polymarket

$51.7K vol2%

Manifold· PlayPlay money

Ɱ4.8K vol2%

Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.

How each venue’s Yes has moved

AI overview· Updated Jul 6, 2026

Despite occasional celebrity endorsements and a persistent online community, the market heavily reflects that no conclusive public proof of a flat Earth has emerged, and the burden of overturning centuries of evidence remains astronomically high.

What's driving it

• Shaq's viral claim that a 25-hour flight convinced him Earth is flat (Yahoo, Jul 4) briefly reignited pop-culture debate but did not produce any verifiable evidence.
• An ongoing viral documentary series (Fathom Journal, Jun 18) detailing failed experiments continues to underscore the lack of reproducible flat-Earth proof.
• Media coverage like The Telegraph's piece on why flat-Earth theory persists (Jun 25) and CNN's correlating flat-Earth belief with political sentiment (Forbes, Jun 1) highlight cultural traction but no scientific shift.

The case for YES

• A credible, globally televised experiment or government release could turn public consensus overnight, though no such event is currently scheduled.
• If a major scientific body — like NASA or a national space agency — were to unexpectedly endorse flat-Earth claims, that might constitute 'conclusive proof' as defined by credible reporting.
• The market resolves to Yes only if proof becomes public by Dec 31, 2026; a sudden, unrebutted discovery in the second half of 2026 could theoretically force a Yes resolution.

The case for NO

• There is zero credible scientific evidence supporting a flat Earth; articles like Star Walk's '7 Ways to Prove Earth Is Round' (Jun 9) illustrate the overwhelming contrary evidence.
• The resolution requires a 'consensus of credible reporting' — a standard no flat-Earth claim has ever met, and no headline suggests such a consensus is forming.
• Even viral figures like Shaq provide only anecdotal personal conviction (Yahoo, Jul 4), not the rigorous, falsifiable proof needed to shift scientific consensus.

What to watch

• 2026-09-22: Flat Earth International Conference — if participants release new 'proof' that gains mainstream media attention, it could briefly shift odds toward Yes, though history suggests no credible evidence will emerge.
• 2026-12-31: Market resolution deadline — as the date approaches without conclusive proof, No odds may consolidate further toward 99-100%.
• 2026-10-15: Scheduled launch of a high-altitude balloon livestream by flat-Earth groups — if it unexpectedly shows a horizon curve, it could undermine the Yes case; if it does not, No odds likely hold.

AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.

Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.