Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027?

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Across venues

· updated 4hPredictPal Consensus

3%blended Yes · 2 venuesHigh reliability

The same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.

Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.

How each venue’s Yes has moved

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AI overview· Updated 5d ago

The market sees a near-zero probability of Biden being arrested before 2027, reflecting that no credible legal threat or investigation targeting him personally has emerged, and the recent headlines focus on unrelated political commentary, family criticism, and foreign policy rather than any criminal probe.

📊 Base rate: Arrests of former U.S. presidents are historically extremely rare—none have been arrested in the modern era—so the base rate for this event is effectively near zero.

What's driving it

• No headline or recent news mentions any criminal investigation, indictment, or arrest warrant for Joe Biden, leaving the 2% odds to reflect only speculative tail risk (The Guardian, Jul 20; Fox News, Jul 19).
• The 1-point drop in Yes probability over the past week aligns with the absence of any new legal developments, as all recent coverage concerns Biden's legacy, family dynamics, or foreign policy, not law enforcement action (PinkNews, Jul 20; The New Yorker, Jul 20).
• Hunter Biden's criticism of Merrick Garland (Fox News, Jul 19) underscores that the DOJ's focus has been on Hunter, not Joe, reinforcing the lack of a personal legal threat to the former president.

The case for YES

• A surprise federal or state investigation could emerge if new evidence links Biden to alleged wrongdoing, such as the Hunter Biden business dealings that have been scrutinized in the past.
• A politically motivated arrest by a Republican-led state attorney general, similar to the Trump indictments, could target Biden on charges like mishandling classified documents or obstruction.
• If a grand jury were convened and issued an indictment, Biden might voluntarily surrender to law enforcement, which qualifies as an arrest under the market's definition.

The case for NO

• No current investigation, subpoena, or warrant targeting Joe Biden has been reported, and the DOJ under Garland has shown no inclination to pursue charges against a former president.
• The political and legal barriers to arresting a former president are extremely high, requiring clear evidence and broad consensus that is absent in the current polarized environment.
• Biden's age and status as a former commander-in-chief make any arrest a massive political event with no precedent, and the lack of any credible legal threat suggests the odds are appropriately near zero.

What to watch

• If a federal or state prosecutor announces a formal investigation into Biden's actions (e.g., classified documents or foreign business ties), the Yes probability would spike significantly.
• A public statement from the DOJ or a court filing mentioning Biden as a target of a probe would move odds upward, though no such event is scheduled.
• The release of a special counsel report or congressional referral recommending charges could serve as a catalyst, but no such report is imminent as of mid-2026.

Sources

🔗 theguardian.com 🔗 foxnews.com 🔗 newyorker.com 🔗 thepinknews.com

AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.

Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.